* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/13/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 65 58 51 39 32 35 37 42 45 50 54 V (KT) LAND 75 71 65 58 51 39 32 35 37 42 45 50 54 V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 69 65 63 57 53 50 50 52 57 63 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 23 27 33 38 31 18 16 8 10 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 0 -2 -2 2 5 4 1 -5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 258 259 255 240 246 251 254 260 234 223 197 189 165 SST (C) 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.8 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 106 108 109 113 117 122 128 131 135 139 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 95 97 98 101 104 108 111 111 112 117 114 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 47 44 41 38 37 42 43 45 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 27 25 23 20 18 17 20 21 24 25 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 61 46 43 38 29 23 23 34 30 33 31 30 46 200 MB DIV 58 36 11 6 17 2 11 17 15 14 2 24 52 700-850 TADV 25 19 23 12 7 9 10 13 2 4 7 3 5 LAND (KM) 1288 1360 1434 1546 1659 1892 2134 2371 2218 2071 1973 1820 1620 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.3 26.1 26.9 28.0 29.0 29.9 30.6 31.8 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 29.4 30.1 30.7 31.8 32.8 35.0 37.3 39.5 41.4 42.8 43.5 44.3 45.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 11 10 11 11 11 9 6 5 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 10 8 7 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -9. -15. -17. -16. -13. -10. -7. -5. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -9. -9. -6. -5. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -17. -24. -36. -43. -40. -38. -33. -30. -24. -21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 2( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)