* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102013 09/13/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 45 50 54 60 65 67 64 60 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 45 50 54 60 65 67 47 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 37 39 42 46 52 58 45 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 15 16 21 16 13 10 8 9 11 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 4 0 0 -1 3 1 -1 1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 253 260 256 249 243 257 255 282 295 292 275 320 261 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 155 153 154 155 156 159 157 158 158 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 137 137 134 135 137 141 143 138 140 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.5 -51.1 -51.6 -50.6 -51.3 -50.4 -50.9 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 9 5 8 4 8 7 9 7 11 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 80 83 81 87 86 87 87 87 84 83 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 11 13 14 17 19 20 18 12 850 MB ENV VOR 89 103 111 118 121 115 115 99 103 97 111 110 110 200 MB DIV 87 75 69 83 84 103 135 122 147 97 117 71 65 700-850 TADV -1 -4 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 1 1 6 -2 LAND (KM) 151 139 112 94 77 73 103 157 123 56 39 -68 -265 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.4 20.1 21.1 21.8 22.0 22.8 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.1 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6 94.4 94.9 95.9 96.7 97.2 98.5 100.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 1 1 3 5 6 4 5 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 15 14 13 13 14 18 23 26 22 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 20. 24. 30. 35. 37. 34. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 TEN 09/13/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 TEN 09/13/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 TEN 09/13/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)