* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/13/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 35 40 42 43 37 31 36 32 29 25 21 V (KT) LAND 30 31 35 40 38 38 33 27 32 27 25 21 17 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 29 27 28 27 23 22 23 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 30 47 59 72 51 36 1 10 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 7 8 7 0 1 10 10 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 227 198 197 204 216 229 231 109 284 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.0 23.8 17.2 16.1 13.1 7.3 10.6 10.4 12.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 129 102 80 76 70 67 68 69 71 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 94 76 72 68 66 66 67 68 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.9 -55.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -56.1 -56.4 -56.8 -56.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 57 57 59 58 51 51 53 59 53 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 11 13 14 9 6 7 18 16 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 34 67 120 57 -16 -20 -5 6 -1 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 73 82 79 62 76 62 59 70 16 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 13 5 4 24 18 18 -4 20 28 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 679 511 367 73 39 10 166 617 1124 1297 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.9 38.1 40.2 43.5 46.8 50.8 53.2 54.7 54.7 55.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.7 66.8 65.8 64.3 62.7 59.0 53.4 46.8 38.9 30.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 23 29 35 29 22 21 21 24 26 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 812 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 8. 11. 15. 10. -1. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 2. 0. -1. 10. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 10. 12. 13. 7. 1. 6. 2. -1. -5. -9. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/13/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/13/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/13/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED