* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/13/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 52 44 38 29 31 30 31 39 41 47 52 V (KT) LAND 65 59 52 44 38 29 31 30 31 39 41 47 52 V (KT) LGE mod 65 60 57 54 51 48 45 43 44 47 52 58 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 30 39 42 37 19 22 20 14 7 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 -6 -5 0 9 -1 1 -1 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 256 245 242 248 247 252 244 233 240 164 166 173 189 SST (C) 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.7 27.2 27.6 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 106 109 112 115 121 126 131 135 137 135 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 94 96 99 100 103 106 110 111 114 114 112 103 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.0 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 53 50 48 45 44 39 36 37 42 44 45 50 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 25 23 20 18 17 21 20 19 23 22 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 29 23 18 13 31 18 12 11 -4 3 37 200 MB DIV 31 10 0 -7 -9 35 36 -14 1 38 4 35 41 700-850 TADV 25 20 10 5 7 10 9 13 5 9 5 3 5 LAND (KM) 1339 1427 1516 1649 1782 2038 2273 2230 2068 1915 1766 1594 1411 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.0 27.0 28.3 29.3 30.2 31.2 32.4 33.9 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 29.8 30.6 31.4 32.7 33.9 36.3 38.4 40.4 42.1 43.4 44.1 44.6 44.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 12 12 10 10 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 9 10 9 15 7 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -10. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -7. -9. -9. -5. -7. -5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -21. -27. -36. -34. -35. -34. -26. -24. -18. -13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)