* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102013 09/13/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 42 47 52 57 56 53 54 52 51 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 42 47 52 57 56 53 39 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 42 34 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 24 20 19 14 11 12 5 9 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 1 3 8 6 4 0 1 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 265 263 249 256 271 278 287 238 269 307 241 208 228 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 153 154 156 158 159 158 158 156 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 135 134 133 136 139 142 142 140 139 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.0 -51.3 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 7 7 6 8 7 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 83 82 85 86 86 84 85 85 85 82 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 12 14 15 18 21 18 13 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 106 111 113 115 119 111 103 101 101 96 107 96 100 200 MB DIV 75 79 87 98 104 144 121 147 104 129 117 82 79 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 1 2 14 20 8 -10 0 12 16 0 LAND (KM) 152 135 118 106 94 112 163 159 91 30 -61 -173 -273 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.6 20.2 21.1 22.1 22.8 23.3 23.8 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.4 94.5 94.6 94.6 94.7 94.9 95.5 96.5 97.5 98.4 99.5 100.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 0 2 4 6 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 15 14 13 15 18 23 27 23 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 5. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 22. 27. 26. 23. 24. 22. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 TEN 09/13/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 TEN 09/13/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 TEN 09/13/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)