* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/13/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 47 40 35 31 32 33 37 43 50 56 58 V (KT) LAND 60 54 47 40 35 31 32 33 37 43 50 56 58 V (KT) LGE mod 60 55 52 49 47 44 41 41 44 49 57 66 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 33 38 42 44 24 17 19 8 6 1 4 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -4 -6 -6 8 6 2 -3 -2 -4 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 241 241 247 247 248 244 224 225 197 158 2 214 183 SST (C) 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.9 26.4 26.9 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.2 27.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 105 106 108 111 114 118 123 128 134 137 138 132 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 97 100 102 105 107 111 114 116 115 110 102 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 49 46 44 43 43 35 38 39 43 43 46 48 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 24 21 19 18 20 23 23 24 26 28 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 36 30 25 19 20 26 34 25 16 11 19 39 46 200 MB DIV 2 -1 -11 -7 6 63 -6 4 2 3 29 35 64 700-850 TADV 18 7 5 8 7 8 20 6 12 -1 1 8 9 LAND (KM) 1457 1549 1641 1769 1896 2166 2354 2184 2001 1831 1668 1506 1356 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.3 27.5 28.5 29.5 30.7 31.8 32.9 34.4 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 30.9 31.8 32.6 33.8 35.0 37.5 39.4 41.0 42.5 44.0 45.4 45.6 44.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 12 11 9 9 9 8 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 11 9 12 11 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -13. -11. -8. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -25. -29. -28. -27. -23. -17. -10. -4. -2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)