* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132013 09/13/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 46 47 51 55 58 59 58 60 60 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 46 47 51 38 31 28 27 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 38 44 49 37 31 28 27 31 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 11 12 11 8 4 6 5 11 10 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 7 0 -1 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 68 76 73 87 105 119 46 71 130 116 127 127 156 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 158 158 158 158 157 156 155 155 153 152 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -50.4 -51.1 -50.4 -51.2 -50.5 -51.0 -50.4 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 10 7 11 8 13 10 13 10 700-500 MB RH 85 83 82 82 81 83 82 80 78 78 77 71 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 17 17 14 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 100 106 116 120 129 118 137 155 173 130 120 76 200 MB DIV 119 124 133 128 99 120 99 118 103 95 25 44 31 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -8 -12 1 4 6 1 2 2 4 3 LAND (KM) 176 162 149 114 79 31 8 -55 -76 -98 -80 45 127 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 35 32 29 24 8 1 47 0 0 0 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 16. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 28. 30. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 THIRTEEN 09/13/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 THIRTEEN 09/13/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##