* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/13/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 43 37 32 27 28 23 28 32 40 49 58 63 V (KT) LAND 50 43 37 32 27 28 23 28 32 40 49 58 63 V (KT) LGE mod 50 44 40 37 35 32 30 30 33 38 46 56 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 40 43 47 42 19 19 16 8 4 0 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -3 -4 0 12 1 1 -4 -3 -3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 241 242 244 248 252 251 250 241 196 183 304 248 231 SST (C) 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.6 27.1 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.1 27.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 107 109 111 113 115 120 125 131 134 138 137 130 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 98 100 102 103 106 109 112 113 116 114 110 100 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.1 -54.8 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 42 39 37 40 42 46 47 49 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 21 19 18 17 23 20 23 23 26 28 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR 31 25 20 18 12 25 17 20 23 11 22 20 19 200 MB DIV 2 -8 -8 -2 16 43 -3 32 7 6 41 15 62 700-850 TADV 8 6 7 10 11 11 13 6 7 4 2 6 11 LAND (KM) 1541 1651 1762 1886 2010 2248 2284 2110 1947 1799 1647 1463 1282 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.2 25.5 26.1 26.6 27.7 28.8 29.9 31.0 32.0 33.1 35.0 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 31.7 32.8 33.8 35.0 36.1 38.3 40.3 41.8 43.1 44.3 45.4 45.1 43.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 8 7 7 8 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 8 8 12 9 2 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -11. -9. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -1. -5. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -23. -22. -27. -22. -18. -10. -1. 8. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)