* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/13/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 54 59 65 70 72 65 60 58 55 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 54 59 65 42 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 49 51 52 53 37 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 19 19 23 20 14 13 7 8 4 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 5 4 3 4 0 0 0 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 262 256 268 262 262 284 277 258 224 271 340 304 267 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 156 158 158 159 156 155 155 154 150 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 139 140 140 142 141 136 133 133 131 127 132 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 8 7 8 8 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 84 85 82 81 82 83 86 85 85 84 84 84 85 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 15 16 19 22 25 24 15 10 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 107 116 121 119 103 98 97 118 111 119 108 104 74 200 MB DIV 110 104 98 105 106 85 104 117 134 103 78 52 37 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 4 4 9 5 -5 0 -17 -2 0 9 LAND (KM) 72 88 94 113 132 83 19 -92 -153 -204 -254 -272 -245 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.5 23.0 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.5 95.6 95.7 95.8 96.4 97.7 98.7 99.3 99.8 100.3 100.5 100.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 4 6 6 4 3 2 1 0 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 15 18 22 24 15 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 11. 2. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 19. 25. 30. 32. 25. 20. 18. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/13/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/13/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/13/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED