* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/13/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 46 48 52 54 56 54 53 53 55 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 46 48 34 29 27 27 27 30 32 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 53 37 30 28 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 12 10 2 7 11 10 14 17 17 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -1 2 0 2 0 0 7 0 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 61 67 80 98 116 93 126 152 135 131 130 150 N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 158 158 158 157 156 154 153 153 153 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 -50.4 -50.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 8 10 9 10 9 10 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 83 81 79 80 83 83 83 80 80 81 77 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 16 16 12 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 109 114 115 118 119 131 170 166 151 114 97 N/A 200 MB DIV 120 134 115 84 85 84 72 114 81 77 62 49 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -10 -11 -8 -6 1 7 5 23 7 1 N/A LAND (KM) 217 189 164 126 89 11 -105 -157 -145 -91 -44 0 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.9 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 22.9 23.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.8 101.9 101.9 102.0 102.0 102.3 102.6 103.1 103.8 104.6 105.5 106.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 28 25 21 16 1 0 0 0 0 45 4 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 385 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -4. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 11. 13. 17. 19. 21. 19. 18. 18. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/13/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/13/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##