* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/14/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 33 28 24 21 22 18 20 28 35 46 57 61 V (KT) LAND 40 33 28 24 21 22 18 20 28 35 46 57 61 V (KT) LGE mod 40 33 29 26 24 22 20 20 21 24 30 38 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 41 45 42 35 26 31 16 9 6 3 6 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 4 6 0 1 -2 -5 -2 0 7 SHEAR DIR 240 240 248 256 262 257 249 248 235 306 254 214 199 SST (C) 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.2 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.2 27.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 109 111 113 115 117 121 126 131 136 138 138 133 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 100 102 104 105 107 110 112 115 115 115 112 101 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -54.4 -54.7 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -54.9 -54.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 41 38 39 43 47 46 50 52 57 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 18 17 17 21 19 19 23 24 26 29 32 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 20 16 17 22 24 30 30 18 41 72 60 200 MB DIV -2 -8 -4 2 51 24 -10 6 14 8 10 50 60 700-850 TADV 5 7 12 13 8 14 3 2 2 4 2 9 12 LAND (KM) 1631 1746 1861 1989 2116 2349 2287 2120 1962 1813 1682 1503 1305 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.2 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.4 28.4 29.5 30.6 31.7 32.7 34.5 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 32.6 33.7 34.8 36.0 37.2 39.4 41.2 42.6 43.8 44.8 45.6 45.4 44.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 7 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 2 9 7 7 8 12 10 3 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -12. -12. -10. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -6. -3. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. 0. -3. -3. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -16. -19. -18. -22. -20. -12. -5. 6. 17. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/14/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/14/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)