* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/14/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 60 63 65 70 72 76 72 66 65 60 58 V (KT) LAND 50 56 60 63 65 70 72 45 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 61 65 68 70 71 45 33 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 16 22 26 20 17 6 9 9 6 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 0 3 -1 -1 -3 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 255 266 268 270 277 287 272 262 239 343 341 315 261 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 159 160 158 158 155 155 155 155 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 141 143 143 141 139 135 135 134 134 131 133 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -51.8 -51.1 -51.4 -50.5 -51.0 -50.2 -51.0 -50.0 -51.2 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 8 9 7 9 7 10 8 11 8 12 700-500 MB RH 85 84 83 82 82 83 86 88 88 85 85 83 82 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 16 17 19 14 9 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 111 123 117 90 87 94 102 106 126 111 98 81 62 200 MB DIV 115 104 108 97 90 89 132 92 111 41 84 37 47 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 1 2 -3 1 -6 0 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 64 113 141 157 165 83 13 -68 -123 -174 -228 -274 -245 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.7 22.8 22.4 22.4 22.8 23.1 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.4 95.6 96.6 97.7 98.5 99.1 99.6 100.1 100.5 100.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 17 20 25 26 16 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 0. -5. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 15. 20. 22. 26. 22. 16. 15. 10. 8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/14/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 6( 6) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED