* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/14/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 27 24 22 23 20 24 31 38 48 59 63 V (KT) LAND 35 30 27 24 22 23 20 24 31 38 48 59 63 V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 26 24 22 20 19 19 21 24 30 37 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 39 44 42 38 35 25 22 13 7 2 3 6 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 2 2 6 0 0 -2 -2 -2 6 5 SHEAR DIR 237 243 250 258 264 247 264 259 280 57 278 199 209 SST (C) 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 111 113 114 116 118 122 127 131 137 138 137 130 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 102 103 104 105 107 110 112 115 115 115 110 101 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -55.2 -55.3 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -54.8 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 4 700-500 MB RH 45 44 42 40 39 41 45 45 47 51 54 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 17 15 15 19 17 18 21 23 25 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 15 18 14 8 7 19 16 26 23 23 35 49 48 200 MB DIV -7 -1 6 38 34 41 19 18 12 27 29 75 45 700-850 TADV 12 18 16 10 10 5 5 2 6 4 3 11 4 LAND (KM) 1722 1848 1974 2090 2207 2419 2247 2095 1955 1806 1651 1490 1350 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.3 25.7 26.2 26.6 27.5 28.6 29.6 30.6 31.8 33.2 35.1 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 33.5 34.7 35.9 37.0 38.1 40.1 41.7 43.0 44.0 44.7 45.0 44.2 42.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 9 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 5 4 6 6 7 11 9 4 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -3. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -13. -12. -15. -11. -4. 3. 13. 24. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/14/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/14/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED