* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/14/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 46 47 48 48 49 49 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 46 47 35 30 32 32 31 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 45 47 50 53 39 31 32 33 33 33 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 13 10 14 14 9 13 13 11 13 7 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 59 67 78 70 109 109 139 144 140 140 151 203 N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 158 158 157 156 155 153 153 152 151 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 11 9 10 10 11 10 11 9 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 80 81 83 82 79 78 76 76 71 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 13 12 9 8 6 6 6 6 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 104 105 113 119 112 140 125 126 98 74 33 N/A 200 MB DIV 83 108 130 142 78 68 81 39 61 25 23 13 N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -15 -12 -11 -1 -1 0 2 6 3 0 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 267 234 201 150 88 8 -34 -73 18 88 120 62 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.2 18.2 19.2 20.2 21.1 22.0 22.8 23.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.5 102.5 102.7 102.8 103.3 104.0 104.7 105.5 106.5 107.6 108.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 23 21 18 14 3 49 0 12 21 19 18 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 378 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -15. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/14/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/14/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##