* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/14/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 66 68 69 72 77 77 76 70 65 61 58 V (KT) LAND 60 64 66 68 69 72 67 43 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 68 70 72 72 73 42 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 29 26 21 15 8 12 4 8 5 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 0 3 4 0 -3 0 -2 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 280 285 292 301 299 291 304 282 261 266 312 278 288 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 160 161 160 158 158 155 155 154 154 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 143 144 142 139 139 135 134 131 132 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -50.6 -51.2 -50.5 -51.0 -50.4 -51.3 -50.7 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 9 8 7 10 8 11 9 12 9 12 9 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 79 80 83 84 83 80 79 79 79 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 13 14 16 18 17 15 11 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 106 87 84 83 74 87 94 109 91 83 76 57 41 200 MB DIV 98 100 97 108 96 98 83 39 29 44 37 53 5 700-850 TADV 1 4 7 4 6 3 1 -2 -3 -7 -7 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 189 207 219 191 158 112 -3 -94 -157 -209 -194 -163 -173 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.9 23.2 23.6 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.8 94.9 95.4 95.8 96.7 97.9 98.8 99.4 99.9 99.7 99.4 99.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 7 5 5 5 3 3 1 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 21 31 41 47 48 38 5 0 0 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 2. 0. -5. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 17. 17. 16. 10. 5. 1. -2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/14/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 3( 6) 4( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 10( 15) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED