* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/14/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 72 74 77 78 80 80 74 71 67 67 65 V (KT) LAND 65 70 72 74 77 78 80 51 35 29 28 27 30 V (KT) LGE mod 65 71 75 78 79 80 80 52 35 29 27 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 27 23 18 21 9 6 4 7 7 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 1 5 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 282 286 304 301 292 302 286 324 29 13 57 67 23 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 161 162 162 160 158 156 154 154 155 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 141 144 145 143 139 136 133 134 135 136 139 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 80 79 77 77 78 80 85 84 81 82 80 79 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 17 18 19 20 20 20 11 9 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 66 71 65 63 71 78 110 115 111 112 89 94 66 200 MB DIV 99 100 99 114 99 100 82 41 58 65 43 48 16 700-850 TADV 6 7 8 7 5 -4 -2 -8 -7 -11 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 253 286 319 271 229 132 27 -59 -132 -125 -98 -73 11 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.3 22.0 21.9 21.7 21.3 21.2 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 94.3 94.1 94.6 95.1 96.5 97.6 98.4 99.1 99.0 98.5 98.1 97.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 6 6 6 4 4 2 2 3 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 33 35 44 48 42 15 0 0 0 0 0 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -7. -4. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -7. -10. -12. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 15. 9. 6. 2. 2. 0. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/14/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 6( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 7( 8) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED