* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/14/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 47 47 47 48 49 51 50 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 40 36 30 28 27 32 31 30 31 32 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 42 37 31 28 27 32 33 34 35 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 8 14 11 13 15 11 10 19 18 17 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 1 0 0 -3 0 0 2 3 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 74 90 99 107 116 137 172 195 185 192 228 223 N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.6 29.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 158 157 155 154 153 153 154 159 158 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 81 81 82 81 81 79 77 75 73 67 65 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 11 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 97 110 106 101 117 139 118 94 75 39 62 N/A 200 MB DIV 128 122 102 84 99 82 57 50 25 33 15 6 N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -10 -1 -2 0 2 5 6 9 2 9 N/A LAND (KM) 159 100 33 -16 -45 -95 -33 -3 22 22 44 89 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.4 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 22.9 23.8 24.5 24.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.6 102.7 103.1 103.5 104.3 104.9 105.6 106.4 107.3 108.3 109.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 13 6 50 46 0 0 53 15 11 18 21 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -3. -5. -8. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 5. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/14/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/14/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##