* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/15/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 75 77 77 77 74 70 70 69 68 67 67 V (KT) LAND 70 73 75 77 77 77 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 78 81 82 83 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 21 23 26 7 8 8 6 11 8 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 0 1 1 4 0 -2 0 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 287 297 290 288 288 306 239 326 8 37 48 50 33 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 164 163 161 158 155 155 154 154 155 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 145 146 143 139 135 134 132 133 134 135 137 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.4 -50.6 -51.2 -50.3 -51.3 -50.6 -51.4 -50.5 -51.5 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 9 7 10 8 11 8 12 9 13 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 80 81 84 85 84 84 82 79 78 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 16 17 17 15 10 7 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 68 57 53 65 78 92 117 115 98 95 84 91 86 200 MB DIV 91 97 88 85 93 112 101 3 65 58 56 38 40 700-850 TADV 5 0 -2 -4 -1 -1 -3 2 2 -3 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 258 254 261 207 143 0 -51 -106 -159 -164 -131 -99 -34 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.2 22.6 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.5 22.2 22.1 21.8 21.5 21.4 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.7 94.8 94.9 95.7 96.4 97.8 98.4 98.9 99.4 99.4 99.0 98.6 97.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 7 6 5 3 3 1 2 2 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 43 46 46 48 44 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -4. -1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/15/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/15/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/15/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 6( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED