* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/15/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 79 79 79 80 75 74 73 70 69 69 70 V (KT) LAND 75 77 79 79 79 58 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 75 79 82 84 84 62 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 21 25 19 5 9 4 2 4 5 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 1 3 1 1 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 296 289 283 279 280 222 308 336 285 61 143 93 42 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 160 158 156 155 155 153 152 152 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 143 142 139 136 134 134 133 131 131 132 133 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 80 79 83 83 84 85 84 82 82 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 14 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 57 64 81 87 106 114 102 107 87 102 87 102 200 MB DIV 93 94 81 111 112 106 46 32 57 37 47 28 45 700-850 TADV 6 -1 -5 -3 -3 -7 -3 0 -1 1 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 216 200 194 127 61 -61 -115 -155 -203 -231 -201 -171 -168 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.0 22.7 22.3 21.9 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.6 95.9 96.6 97.2 98.4 99.0 99.4 99.8 100.0 99.7 99.4 99.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 48 41 27 0 0 0 9999 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -8. -6. -4. 0. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/15/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/15/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/15/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 7( 18) 0( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)