* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/15/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 66 66 65 64 62 62 60 59 56 56 57 V (KT) LAND 60 56 48 41 36 34 32 32 30 29 26 26 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 49 41 36 34 35 36 37 38 41 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 13 16 16 17 12 12 11 10 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 3 2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -1 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 118 136 134 138 135 150 155 181 226 200 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.5 30.0 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 157 156 153 153 153 158 163 159 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -50.5 -50.0 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -50.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 81 83 81 78 76 76 73 70 64 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 9 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 118 120 130 142 140 128 100 77 52 29 61 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 85 89 103 94 62 31 -2 12 4 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -5 -1 2 1 1 8 3 1 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 55 0 -22 -49 -69 17 44 30 30 32 54 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.0 21.2 22.4 23.4 24.4 25.2 25.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.1 103.6 104.1 104.6 105.4 106.2 107.0 108.0 108.8 109.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 2 49 50 1 9 24 15 21 21 23 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -4. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/15/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/15/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##