* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/15/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 66 67 67 66 64 62 59 56 56 56 V (KT) LAND 60 63 49 42 38 39 39 36 34 32 28 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 49 42 38 41 43 44 44 45 36 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 14 15 16 12 9 12 8 6 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 2 0 -2 0 -1 -2 0 0 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 116 115 134 139 143 143 135 136 183 153 208 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 155 155 154 153 152 151 148 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.7 -50.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.3 -50.8 -50.2 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 12 10 10 11 9 11 7 9 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 79 81 77 75 73 72 65 59 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 9 7 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 112 118 125 124 113 119 82 70 41 49 35 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 94 88 97 62 59 6 16 5 0 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -3 2 0 0 1 4 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 13 2 -29 -31 -21 60 124 165 74 3 -10 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.8 21.6 22.3 23.1 23.8 24.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.0 104.5 104.9 105.3 106.1 106.8 107.7 108.7 109.8 110.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 50 46 46 51 17 19 20 19 4 20 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 433 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. -4. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/15/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/15/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##