* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/15/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 66 68 67 64 65 66 70 70 72 72 V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 66 51 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 62 63 50 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 17 11 9 9 3 6 6 3 6 3 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 2 0 -2 1 0 0 0 1 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 290 277 277 274 279 306 313 358 37 33 25 344 N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 158 158 156 155 152 152 150 151 152 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 139 139 138 136 136 131 130 128 129 130 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 9 8 10 10 9 8 10 10 11 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 78 80 79 80 84 83 82 81 81 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 18 18 17 13 7 6 5 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 72 82 90 97 96 99 113 92 96 70 89 N/A 200 MB DIV 68 94 106 105 75 35 36 48 34 49 19 49 N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 -2 -2 -7 -2 -10 -3 -8 -4 0 N/A LAND (KM) 158 123 71 15 -40 -123 -196 -273 -264 -254 -266 -256 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.6 22.3 22.0 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.1 96.6 97.1 97.7 98.2 99.1 99.8 100.5 100.4 100.3 100.4 100.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 38 28 18 57 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -9. -11. -12. -12. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 2. -1. 0. 1. 5. 5. 7. 7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/15/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/15/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/15/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)