* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/15/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 43 45 49 50 53 54 52 54 57 V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 33 36 38 41 43 46 46 36 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 36 33 35 36 37 37 39 42 34 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 11 14 18 13 5 9 8 6 8 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 135 134 131 139 146 126 151 174 241 206 253 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.4 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 155 154 153 152 153 153 146 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 79 79 75 74 71 64 58 52 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 116 120 118 121 129 96 64 57 47 72 39 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 100 106 88 71 39 8 16 8 7 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 1 0 0 0 3 5 3 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -4 -31 -37 -31 20 112 120 94 68 30 -41 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.5 25.4 25.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.2 104.6 104.9 105.3 105.6 106.7 107.4 108.5 109.6 110.7 111.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 6 7 6 7 7 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 49 46 0 12 23 23 21 22 19 21 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 5. 8. 9. 7. 9. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/15/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/15/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##