* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/16/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 69 69 69 71 73 76 77 78 78 77 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 69 57 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 68 59 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 26 19 10 11 9 1 3 5 5 9 10 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 0 -2 -3 0 1 0 0 -3 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 283 284 286 278 274 333 294 69 99 43 67 72 N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 158 158 156 154 153 152 152 152 153 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 137 139 139 138 136 134 131 132 133 134 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -50.7 -51.4 -50.8 -51.6 -50.7 -51.4 -50.7 -51.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 11 9 11 8 12 8 13 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 78 80 80 81 81 78 79 76 76 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 13 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 84 76 86 89 90 90 99 92 89 84 95 N/A 200 MB DIV 103 107 94 76 89 12 48 41 49 20 40 31 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -5 -5 0 3 5 3 3 0 0 N/A LAND (KM) 174 127 81 30 -19 -113 -222 -312 -317 -312 -321 -294 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.4 22.0 21.5 21.3 21.1 20.7 20.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.1 96.6 97.0 97.5 98.0 99.0 100.0 100.8 100.8 100.7 100.9 100.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 3 1 1 2 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 39 30 21 57 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/16/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/16/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/16/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED