* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/16/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 30 31 35 40 45 50 51 52 56 61 V (KT) LAND 35 32 34 34 35 39 44 49 54 55 56 60 65 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 31 32 30 29 29 30 33 36 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 9 8 6 7 14 14 19 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 166 160 165 154 135 168 197 225 224 237 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.7 29.7 29.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 153 153 153 155 160 160 152 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.2 -50.7 -50.4 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 11 12 9 11 7 9 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 80 78 76 75 77 74 68 61 57 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 125 125 118 118 107 78 51 49 49 60 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 125 111 73 60 44 11 21 16 21 22 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 1 2 4 1 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -29 -29 9 49 71 67 52 49 44 51 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.8 23.8 24.7 25.4 25.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.1 105.5 105.9 106.3 106.9 107.7 108.5 109.5 110.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 46 5 19 22 22 22 23 21 23 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 388 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -8. -8. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -4. 0. 5. 10. 15. 16. 17. 21. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/16/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/16/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##