* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/16/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 53 53 54 55 57 60 65 69 73 74 V (KT) LAND 55 42 36 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 43 36 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 13 14 12 10 4 4 2 3 1 3 3 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 -4 -5 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 283 253 269 282 314 239 250 271 9 16 34 33 N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 148 149 149 148 149 147 147 147 148 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 129 129 131 131 129 128 127 126 128 129 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.0 -51.6 -50.9 -51.5 -50.8 -51.4 -50.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 12 10 9 12 8 12 9 13 10 13 N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 78 78 78 78 76 77 76 78 78 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 77 85 91 89 79 89 81 75 82 103 91 N/A 200 MB DIV 61 66 87 43 36 57 31 37 33 42 45 52 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -3 0 -1 5 7 2 4 1 0 0 N/A LAND (KM) 0 -56 -112 -158 -197 -288 -362 -339 -368 -370 -359 -354 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.5 23.3 23.1 22.8 22.3 22.1 21.8 21.7 21.7 21.2 21.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.4 98.9 99.4 99.8 100.7 101.4 102.0 101.7 101.4 101.5 101.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 1 2 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/16/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/16/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/16/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)