* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/16/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 46 47 49 51 53 55 57 62 65 65 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 46 47 49 51 53 55 57 62 65 65 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 44 47 51 56 60 66 71 72 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 22 20 15 14 20 17 16 8 16 17 32 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -3 1 -1 11 SHEAR DIR 264 276 287 312 318 316 316 310 269 280 214 204 197 SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.0 23.8 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 125 125 126 128 129 130 130 129 125 118 102 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 108 107 107 107 108 108 107 108 109 105 93 79 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -56.0 -56.2 -56.4 -56.3 -56.0 -55.6 -55.9 -56.1 -55.8 -55.6 -56.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 3 1 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 49 50 54 57 60 59 57 46 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 13 13 11 11 10 11 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 12 8 4 15 9 3 5 9 16 35 19 38 49 200 MB DIV 12 -13 -12 2 13 -2 18 9 20 40 62 53 39 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 2 -8 -213 LAND (KM) 2335 2244 2154 2092 2030 1941 1819 1723 1666 1576 1489 1530 1519 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.0 28.7 29.2 29.6 30.3 31.4 32.4 33.3 35.1 38.0 42.0 46.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 43.7 44.0 44.5 44.9 45.4 45.6 45.3 44.3 42.3 39.3 35.0 29.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 9 16 22 29 30 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 10 11 10 9 9 11 8 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 22. 25. 25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/16/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/16/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/16/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)