* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/17/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 43 45 46 47 49 52 59 63 58 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 43 45 46 47 49 52 59 63 58 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 39 40 40 42 45 48 52 57 61 61 55 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 14 13 18 18 18 14 20 16 26 31 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -5 1 0 9 23 SHEAR DIR 276 292 309 305 308 324 312 315 298 268 231 201 191 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.7 25.6 22.9 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 120 123 125 126 127 129 129 130 128 123 115 98 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 106 107 107 107 107 108 110 110 108 104 91 77 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.0 -56.2 -56.2 -56.1 -56.0 -55.7 -56.0 -55.7 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 2 0 700-500 MB RH 47 47 49 49 48 53 53 56 53 48 37 34 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 16 15 15 15 14 13 12 13 16 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 22 16 1 7 5 4 9 32 37 94 97 200 MB DIV -10 -16 1 9 -3 0 -12 16 24 63 61 76 77 700-850 TADV 4 5 4 0 -1 0 0 5 8 13 18 48 36 LAND (KM) 2366 2294 2221 2157 2094 1989 1905 1803 1706 1590 1512 1625 1201 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.9 30.7 31.9 33.3 35.6 38.8 43.3 48.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 43.8 44.2 44.6 44.9 45.2 45.2 44.5 43.3 41.1 38.0 32.9 26.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 6 6 5 4 5 8 12 17 25 32 35 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. 19. 23. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED