* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/17/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 42 44 47 50 56 58 49 58 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 42 44 47 50 56 58 49 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 34 35 37 40 44 48 52 54 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 11 12 15 16 16 21 17 22 28 36 55 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -2 0 1 0 -1 -6 -3 4 4 21 20 SHEAR DIR 289 289 293 307 319 326 322 302 284 237 226 200 175 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.3 26.9 25.9 23.6 18.4 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 123 125 126 127 129 128 125 117 102 83 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 105 105 106 106 106 108 109 109 105 94 79 73 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.4 -56.2 -56.2 -56.1 -56.2 -56.1 -55.7 -55.3 -54.9 -55.2 -52.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 48 47 47 48 52 56 57 53 44 37 41 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 18 17 17 17 17 15 14 13 16 17 14 29 850 MB ENV VOR 9 25 19 10 0 2 -5 6 52 58 92 104 187 200 MB DIV -12 3 8 0 -21 5 0 26 41 50 58 60 94 700-850 TADV 10 6 1 0 3 5 9 12 23 17 38 33 -101 LAND (KM) 2327 2263 2198 2136 2074 1966 1883 1769 1658 1541 1553 1370 767 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.4 30.4 31.3 32.8 34.7 37.9 42.3 48.4 55.2 LONG(DEG W) 42.9 43.3 43.6 43.9 44.2 44.3 44.0 43.0 41.4 38.6 34.5 28.7 21.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 5 5 7 10 15 23 32 38 40 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 8 9 11 9 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -1. 0. -4. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 13. 15. 21. 23. 14. 23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)