* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/17/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 45 49 52 54 57 62 62 59 51 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 45 49 52 54 57 62 62 59 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 41 45 49 53 57 60 59 54 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 14 15 14 17 17 23 19 26 58 71 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 0 -3 -2 -5 -3 -3 -5 14 25 SHEAR DIR 290 285 292 315 328 323 329 312 303 230 195 188 201 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.0 23.8 18.4 14.2 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 124 123 124 126 126 125 118 103 81 71 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 105 103 104 106 106 108 106 95 76 67 65 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.4 -56.2 -56.4 -56.2 -56.4 -56.2 -54.4 -50.6 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 49 51 52 59 59 53 41 40 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 15 16 15 14 13 13 14 18 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 23 17 9 4 5 -6 -6 7 32 27 100 181 243 200 MB DIV -4 9 4 -8 -2 -5 12 25 59 54 74 57 37 700-850 TADV 7 4 1 2 3 1 3 8 10 18 -163 -138 -33 LAND (KM) 2237 2164 2091 2051 2011 1900 1800 1706 1613 1567 1470 1127 959 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 29.0 29.6 30.0 30.3 31.5 32.7 34.4 37.3 42.0 48.3 52.7 55.4 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 42.8 43.1 43.2 43.3 43.0 42.5 41.0 38.2 34.5 30.1 26.9 24.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 4 6 9 15 23 31 29 20 14 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 7 8 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. -3. -10. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 14. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -1. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 22. 27. 27. 24. 16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)