* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/17/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 54 58 61 64 69 70 65 55 43 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 54 58 61 64 69 70 65 55 43 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 57 62 66 68 68 61 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 10 13 20 15 17 19 38 84 78 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -1 2 -3 5 12 13 SHEAR DIR 268 288 316 322 320 334 309 297 234 204 194 197 214 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.5 25.4 22.0 14.6 11.5 10.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 125 125 126 125 121 113 95 76 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 106 105 103 104 106 105 105 102 89 74 69 67 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.4 -56.4 -56.7 -56.3 -55.9 -55.4 -55.9 -52.4 -50.6 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 46 49 52 53 57 60 57 46 42 49 54 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 17 16 15 13 13 14 18 21 21 13 850 MB ENV VOR 13 4 -3 4 0 -7 14 40 27 57 125 126 109 200 MB DIV 13 5 -6 -7 0 5 46 51 57 63 68 35 -46 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 3 1 5 4 13 9 1 -192 -157 -79 LAND (KM) 2085 2014 1943 1907 1872 1747 1643 1558 1525 1566 1174 958 960 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.4 31.0 31.4 31.7 33.1 34.4 36.2 39.1 44.5 52.1 58.3 62.8 LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.0 43.2 43.2 43.2 42.8 42.3 40.7 37.5 33.0 27.5 23.3 20.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 3 5 7 9 15 25 37 38 29 23 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 4 3 3 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -5. -13. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -4. -1. 2. 1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 18. 21. 24. 29. 30. 25. 15. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED