* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/18/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 46 51 56 61 62 55 64 64 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 46 51 56 61 62 55 64 64 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 35 36 38 43 49 54 58 58 55 51 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 12 17 16 19 16 35 56 66 33 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -4 -4 -3 -6 0 -2 1 14 19 16 SHEAR DIR 284 305 306 324 331 334 303 250 225 189 187 181 199 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.5 25.6 23.1 18.3 13.1 11.8 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 126 127 127 125 120 114 98 82 73 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 105 105 105 106 106 104 100 89 77 71 66 64 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.5 -56.6 -56.5 -56.5 -56.8 -56.2 -56.2 -55.9 -54.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 49 53 52 54 60 59 53 42 39 48 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 16 15 14 13 13 15 18 17 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR 4 3 12 5 0 10 29 30 61 123 206 227 139 200 MB DIV 14 -8 -10 -20 -14 30 38 61 52 71 87 72 83 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 2 1 1 7 1 10 -140 -180 -115 -66 LAND (KM) 1988 1928 1868 1812 1756 1634 1527 1444 1468 1472 880 687 445 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.2 31.7 32.3 32.8 34.3 36.3 39.1 43.0 48.4 54.8 58.6 59.1 LONG(DEG W) 43.1 43.2 43.3 43.3 43.3 42.7 41.1 38.7 35.2 30.2 23.5 17.6 13.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 5 7 10 14 20 28 35 31 18 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 2 9 10 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 0. -6. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -2. 0. -1. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 26. 27. 20. 29. 29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)