* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/18/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 46 51 53 53 51 47 46 45 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 46 51 53 41 42 38 38 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 39 44 49 53 41 43 44 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 5 4 7 2 4 6 5 9 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -1 -1 -6 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 167 196 228 221 176 238 239 248 114 177 152 189 173 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 156 157 157 152 147 140 137 134 132 129 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -50.1 -50.6 -50.5 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 7 9 10 6 9 6 8 6 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 63 59 53 46 46 43 44 42 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 53 45 38 34 39 48 38 24 15 19 16 32 14 200 MB DIV 0 -10 -15 -6 15 24 1 -12 -6 11 -4 11 7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 120 123 127 99 82 54 33 7 -12 24 47 69 75 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.3 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.8 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 107.9 108.1 108.5 108.8 109.6 110.2 110.7 111.2 111.4 111.5 111.7 112.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 22 22 21 22 13 1 33 23 21 30 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 21. 23. 23. 21. 17. 16. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##