* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/18/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 42 45 50 48 48 44 41 40 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 42 45 50 40 42 38 36 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 38 41 45 39 42 42 43 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 6 8 7 6 4 5 4 10 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -1 -4 -2 -4 -2 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 211 232 210 182 196 229 208 292 138 167 131 168 171 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 157 157 156 152 147 141 138 134 131 126 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 9 10 7 8 7 8 6 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 69 67 64 60 56 48 45 43 42 41 42 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 10 8 9 7 7 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 51 38 41 54 66 47 48 11 28 15 39 28 32 200 MB DIV 4 -8 5 24 26 9 2 -5 -9 2 4 15 5 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 112 120 104 78 64 54 33 15 -11 26 78 99 109 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.5 24.2 23.9 23.6 23.6 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.1 108.4 108.8 109.2 109.6 110.2 110.6 111.0 111.2 111.6 111.9 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 21 21 22 13 2 32 27 1 18 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 15. 20. 18. 18. 14. 11. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##