* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/18/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 43 49 57 60 46 40 34 21 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 43 49 57 60 46 40 34 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 41 46 51 55 56 49 40 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 15 18 15 16 17 25 48 66 67 66 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -1 -1 -4 -5 1 0 16 32 29 13 6 SHEAR DIR 304 320 345 357 358 324 263 238 203 187 187 204 225 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.1 24.1 19.9 16.5 15.4 14.8 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 129 128 127 124 118 104 85 75 72 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 106 107 108 107 106 105 95 78 70 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.9 -56.9 -56.9 -56.8 -56.1 -55.5 -55.8 -54.3 -53.1 -53.9 -55.6 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 55 57 56 53 44 38 40 41 46 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 10 11 13 19 15 19 22 12 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -5 -13 -9 -4 28 50 65 81 78 42 -33 -62 200 MB DIV -8 -12 -15 -12 23 33 67 64 60 46 62 50 13 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 6 0 10 19 32 31 -36 -33 -25 -46 LAND (KM) 1921 1862 1804 1732 1662 1571 1454 1465 1560 1046 627 253 -46 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.6 32.1 32.9 33.7 35.2 37.9 41.8 46.8 50.2 52.2 53.5 53.4 LONG(DEG W) 43.8 43.9 43.9 43.7 43.4 42.2 40.0 36.0 30.3 25.0 19.5 13.8 8.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 9 13 20 28 28 22 19 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 10 1 6 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 3. -4. -10. -18. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -6. -4. 1. -3. 1. 3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 14. 22. 25. 12. 5. -1. -14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)