* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/18/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 39 41 43 43 46 47 47 44 40 38 38 V (KT) LAND 35 38 39 41 43 43 46 47 39 39 35 33 32 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 44 48 52 56 46 46 46 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 7 8 6 5 6 7 10 15 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 -1 -4 -7 -2 -5 -4 -7 0 -6 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 236 214 166 184 195 182 237 89 145 118 151 157 182 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 157 158 158 156 153 148 143 140 137 131 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.0 -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 10 7 9 6 8 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 67 64 60 56 53 46 46 45 47 46 46 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 54 64 54 44 27 12 15 28 32 24 26 200 MB DIV -2 5 31 28 12 17 3 6 0 5 0 13 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 105 105 104 104 95 85 60 22 -30 14 58 80 99 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.3 23.8 23.5 23.3 23.3 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.1 108.4 108.7 108.9 109.2 109.7 110.0 110.3 110.6 111.0 111.3 112.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 14 33 2 3 1 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 11. 12. 12. 9. 5. 3. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##