* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/18/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 63 65 64 64 63 62 60 54 50 47 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 63 65 64 64 63 62 60 53 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 62 67 71 79 85 87 87 85 78 76 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 6 10 13 6 5 3 5 6 11 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -2 0 -3 0 -3 -5 -6 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 248 237 220 234 250 247 314 126 233 147 167 166 172 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.8 29.0 27.7 26.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 161 162 164 163 159 159 152 139 130 121 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 62 58 55 49 47 45 44 40 37 35 30 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 3 2 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 48 64 55 35 51 15 24 4 33 26 46 28 200 MB DIV 8 20 27 14 3 18 -9 -7 0 2 7 14 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 82 78 74 53 38 27 65 99 90 22 64 175 287 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.0 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.8 24.4 23.5 23.0 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.2 108.4 108.5 108.5 108.7 109.1 109.4 109.6 110.3 111.3 112.3 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 3 1 2 1 2 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 22 17 15 23 24 24 4 1 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -8. -11. -10. -10. -9. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 15. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 4. 0. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##