* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/19/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 40 49 57 47 37 34 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 40 49 57 47 37 34 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 29 30 33 37 39 38 35 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 21 17 16 21 29 56 71 69 74 65 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -6 -2 0 2 4 15 17 23 26 11 4 SHEAR DIR 336 336 338 333 321 248 207 197 206 217 222 212 251 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.7 25.7 22.1 16.4 12.7 11.8 12.0 12.8 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 128 125 123 116 95 79 73 66 63 69 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 108 108 107 107 105 88 76 71 64 61 66 71 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.8 -56.7 -56.3 -56.0 -55.5 -55.7 -54.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 55 59 58 57 52 42 46 54 53 55 46 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 11 15 24 21 19 26 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -16 -4 13 51 80 98 105 95 146 57 -67 -92 200 MB DIV -25 4 30 42 30 77 66 74 57 38 14 15 -6 700-850 TADV 4 7 1 5 17 24 10 -20 -75 -36 -21 -83 -31 LAND (KM) 1819 1740 1662 1588 1521 1406 1492 1221 679 521 419 333 256 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.9 33.7 34.8 35.9 39.0 44.3 50.3 57.0 60.5 60.5 58.4 53.0 LONG(DEG W) 43.5 43.5 43.4 42.7 41.9 39.4 34.1 27.6 19.3 13.4 11.3 11.5 13.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 13 16 26 35 40 32 13 6 19 28 HEAT CONTENT 10 1 6 11 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 4. -3. -12. -19. -27. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 8. 5. 2. 8. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 19. 27. 17. 7. 4. -14. -17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/19/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/19/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/19/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)