* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/19/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 76 78 77 76 73 70 69 67 65 63 64 V (KT) LAND 65 72 76 78 59 43 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 74 82 88 69 47 37 32 30 28 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 13 10 13 7 8 0 8 9 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -5 -2 -2 0 -6 -4 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 242 243 228 221 248 303 342 295 263 225 204 227 210 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 163 163 163 164 164 163 163 164 166 167 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.4 -49.9 -50.2 -50.1 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.2 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 10 7 10 8 11 7 10 6 9 700-500 MB RH 64 60 57 51 49 47 43 41 39 38 39 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 7 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 62 54 44 41 34 5 1 -9 4 6 17 7 200 MB DIV 18 30 23 29 10 -14 -15 -5 -11 10 13 4 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 3 4 2 4 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 37 18 3 -2 -8 -15 -6 -6 -1 -1 -1 -36 -47 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.8 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.1 108.1 108.2 108.2 108.4 108.6 108.6 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.6 108.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 24 13 4 2 62 56 2 2 4 4 4 9 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 12. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 13. 12. 11. 8. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/19/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/19/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##