* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/19/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 48 51 39 33 39 43 44 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 48 51 39 33 39 34 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 29 30 33 38 39 36 33 31 29 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 17 17 15 21 46 61 35 41 38 44 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 18 25 14 4 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 337 332 321 310 291 226 188 190 189 205 195 212 N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.3 24.9 21.0 18.0 15.5 15.4 14.9 14.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 126 123 120 110 88 77 72 71 71 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 108 107 106 105 99 80 72 68 67 67 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.8 -56.2 -55.9 -55.7 -55.5 -54.8 -53.1 -53.3 -55.6 -56.8 -57.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 59 56 56 57 45 41 44 48 48 42 35 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 10 9 9 13 20 18 16 22 29 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 14 27 57 67 67 109 110 106 110 7 -65 N/A 200 MB DIV 9 32 41 38 59 79 79 58 61 78 61 58 N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 3 15 12 0 -76 -100 -95 -33 1 -15 N/A LAND (KM) 1689 1620 1555 1488 1434 1390 1516 1345 917 553 218 -59 N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.9 34.7 35.9 37.1 40.6 45.5 48.8 51.1 52.7 53.2 53.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.5 44.1 43.6 42.6 41.5 38.0 33.2 28.6 23.5 18.4 13.1 7.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 12 15 19 26 26 21 19 17 17 19 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 11 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 2. -4. -10. -14. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -4. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -2. 4. 2. 0. 6. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 18. 21. 9. 3. 9. 13. 14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/19/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/19/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/19/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)