* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/19/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 70 71 72 72 72 70 70 69 67 63 61 V (KT) LAND 65 69 61 52 45 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 71 75 56 48 37 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 7 10 14 4 6 5 12 20 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 2 -2 -2 -8 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 216 213 216 246 262 299 313 284 233 250 238 258 257 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 163 164 164 163 163 165 167 169 166 166 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -49.9 -50.0 -50.0 -50.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 8 8 8 8 9 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 59 57 53 50 48 45 42 39 37 34 32 24 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 60 44 43 59 22 29 0 22 -7 33 14 25 200 MB DIV 30 35 30 16 0 -17 -2 -6 -2 20 -7 -8 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 1 5 1 2 0 0 3 -1 LAND (KM) 23 10 -1 0 0 -35 -5 -19 -30 -82 -59 -49 -202 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.7 25.4 25.5 25.7 26.2 26.8 28.0 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.2 108.1 108.2 108.3 108.4 108.4 108.3 108.5 108.4 108.8 110.1 109.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 3 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 7 2 1 66 57 67 55 57 0 75 8 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 12. 12. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/19/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/19/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##