* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/19/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 66 67 68 68 68 69 67 63 61 61 V (KT) LAND 65 55 47 42 37 32 29 28 27 29 26 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 55 47 41 37 32 29 28 27 35 29 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 9 10 13 9 8 5 11 17 27 21 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -6 -3 -2 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 217 226 241 264 285 334 315 301 256 245 259 256 N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.1 30.2 30.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 162 162 164 165 166 169 164 164 165 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.1 -50.2 -50.4 -50.2 -50.5 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 8 7 10 7 10 6 8 3 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 51 50 49 43 40 37 34 27 26 28 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 41 43 52 38 17 20 7 24 22 39 10 N/A 200 MB DIV 30 20 21 6 -4 -15 -11 -6 7 -4 -22 -6 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 6 3 3 0 -2 3 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 0 -3 -7 -9 -12 -9 -10 -36 -25 7 -59 -144 N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.2 27.1 28.3 28.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.1 108.1 108.1 108.1 108.3 108.5 108.6 109.0 110.3 110.1 109.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 5 5 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 1 1 56 56 66 1 9 68 4 8 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -4. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/19/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/19/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##