* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/19/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 52 55 45 34 25 23 22 22 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 52 55 45 34 25 23 22 22 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 36 36 36 35 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 26 21 20 28 44 45 43 30 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -2 0 8 3 17 26 25 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 337 333 315 283 246 208 194 164 153 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.8 24.7 23.3 22.0 20.7 19.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 124 121 114 105 96 89 84 79 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 108 106 99 91 83 78 75 72 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.5 -56.3 -55.9 -55.3 -55.2 -54.1 -53.6 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 4 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 54 52 52 51 43 42 48 52 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 13 20 20 13 9 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -6 16 34 41 95 90 172 221 226 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 30 46 85 80 92 47 52 53 55 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 10 18 27 33 74 -67 -110 -96 -30 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1770 1726 1691 1632 1592 1621 1748 1558 1257 874 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 34.0 34.9 36.4 37.9 40.2 42.3 44.2 45.7 47.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.5 41.5 40.4 39.1 37.8 35.1 31.9 28.4 24.5 20.2 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 15 18 17 16 16 16 16 17 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 0. -7. -12. -15. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 6. 0. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 22. 25. 15. 4. -5. -7. -8. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/19/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/19/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/19/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)