* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/19/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 49 50 51 53 54 54 49 43 42 45 V (KT) LAND 55 44 36 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 43 36 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 16 18 18 14 15 19 34 40 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -3 -2 1 -3 0 -2 -3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 248 260 274 292 287 287 270 262 264 269 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 149 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.9 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 9 8 10 9 9 8 7 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 52 51 50 48 45 42 36 33 31 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 3 3 3 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 46 50 38 25 29 2 25 20 48 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 23 1 6 -3 -12 -12 1 23 -16 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 8 15 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -56 -87 -118 -140 -164 -220 -281 -339 -333 -461 -510 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.9 27.6 28.5 29.6 31.0 31.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.6 107.4 107.2 107.1 107.0 107.0 106.7 106.7 107.7 107.3 106.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 18. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -14. -20. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -6. -12. -13. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/19/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/19/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##