* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112013 09/29/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 45 47 48 48 47 48 49 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 45 47 48 48 47 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 38 42 44 46 46 47 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 5 2 8 16 21 27 24 22 21 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 186 205 251 299 307 344 335 339 319 312 295 291 257 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 134 133 131 129 123 123 126 125 125 126 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 117 115 114 111 103 103 106 104 103 105 107 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.4 -55.3 -55.4 -55.9 -56.0 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 55 54 51 46 44 40 41 43 53 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -119 -115 -108 -100 -85 -59 -41 -25 -22 -30 -44 -51 -40 200 MB DIV 15 13 2 17 -5 -35 -22 -30 -18 -19 -24 7 7 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 -2 -4 0 -5 -2 -4 2 4 7 2 LAND (KM) 1742 1812 1883 1958 2034 2206 2272 2280 2206 2161 2165 2138 2092 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 2 2 3 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 13 13 14 29 18 19 29 29 30 27 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 18. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)