* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112013 09/29/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 35 40 43 46 47 49 50 53 54 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 35 40 43 46 47 49 50 53 54 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 37 40 42 44 47 50 54 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 9 14 16 20 15 18 15 16 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 -4 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 201 231 278 296 320 331 331 315 305 273 264 217 216 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 134 132 129 127 126 128 130 131 133 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 117 116 114 111 107 107 109 111 111 113 115 114 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 54 52 51 49 46 45 46 54 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -123 -112 -100 -90 -82 -48 -37 -21 -22 -33 -33 -24 -34 200 MB DIV 13 2 8 -3 -36 -10 -29 -11 -14 16 10 30 24 700-850 TADV 3 2 -1 -3 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 2 4 1 0 LAND (KM) 1810 1880 1951 2022 2092 2171 2151 2096 2020 1979 1974 2042 1929 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.0 26.5 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.2 26.0 26.2 26.7 27.5 28.7 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 49.9 49.4 48.9 48.3 47.6 46.6 46.6 47.1 48.0 48.7 49.2 48.4 46.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 3 4 4 5 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 16 21 30 31 33 20 13 12 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 10. 13. 16. 17. 19. 20. 23. 24. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)