* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112013 09/29/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 43 48 52 54 58 59 59 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 43 48 52 54 58 59 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 43 46 49 53 55 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 6 13 15 16 16 15 13 16 19 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 2 2 2 -1 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 173 223 283 307 327 325 333 301 307 261 224 209 194 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 130 129 126 125 124 128 130 130 131 130 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 116 112 110 106 105 104 109 110 111 112 111 109 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 53 52 50 45 40 42 45 52 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 10 13 14 15 14 14 15 15 18 850 MB ENV VOR -114 -101 -90 -84 -65 -35 -17 -2 -7 -13 -10 -5 -9 200 MB DIV -3 6 -7 -35 -29 -5 -34 10 -21 4 34 14 51 700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 1 0 -2 -3 -2 0 4 8 3 11 LAND (KM) 1920 2000 2079 2129 2180 2206 2189 2128 2053 2047 2108 2005 1919 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.3 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.3 27.0 28.2 29.3 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 48.9 48.3 47.6 47.1 46.6 46.1 46.2 46.8 47.7 48.1 47.8 47.0 45.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 4 4 5 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 25 30 31 24 27 34 25 17 14 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 28. 29. 29. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)