* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112013 09/29/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 44 45 47 48 50 52 56 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 44 45 47 48 50 52 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 36 38 40 42 45 49 52 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 16 17 18 24 16 20 15 18 11 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 221 281 315 330 335 329 316 315 299 292 247 228 224 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 127 127 125 125 128 126 126 127 129 130 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 110 108 108 105 105 107 104 104 108 110 113 108 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 53 51 45 42 40 42 48 53 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -103 -91 -83 -66 -53 -43 -37 -36 -34 -43 -37 -45 -60 200 MB DIV 4 -8 -37 -33 -9 -35 -9 -6 22 -10 26 15 27 700-850 TADV -3 -4 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 5 1 4 8 LAND (KM) 2047 2099 2151 2186 2221 2207 2120 2111 2138 2165 2083 2009 1994 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.4 28.5 29.5 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 48.0 47.6 47.1 46.7 46.2 46.3 47.3 47.4 47.1 47.0 47.4 46.0 43.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 4 2 2 3 0 1 4 5 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 27 31 27 28 27 25 29 28 13 9 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 20. 22. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED