* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112013 09/30/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 37 42 45 47 50 53 55 57 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 37 42 45 47 50 53 55 57 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 34 36 38 40 43 47 53 57 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 13 15 17 18 19 14 10 13 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -1 2 0 -3 -3 -4 -5 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 271 311 317 324 316 331 313 322 290 285 275 255 213 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 125 124 125 126 128 129 131 133 132 129 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 109 105 104 105 106 108 109 111 113 113 109 106 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 49 46 43 40 40 44 49 49 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 9 11 11 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -93 -84 -68 -56 -44 -27 -21 -25 -34 -43 -52 -74 -58 200 MB DIV -19 -26 -27 -1 -4 -40 0 -8 -10 10 -4 20 44 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 -2 -8 -6 -3 -4 0 1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2115 2172 2229 2223 2216 2154 2117 2056 2025 2087 1971 1868 1786 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.6 27.1 28.0 29.6 30.8 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 47.3 46.8 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.7 47.1 47.8 48.4 48.2 47.1 46.1 45.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 1 2 2 3 3 4 7 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 28 28 27 32 31 22 14 14 9 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 15. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 ELEVEN 09/30/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 ELEVEN 09/30/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 ELEVEN 09/30/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)