* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112013 09/30/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 43 45 48 49 51 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 43 45 48 49 51 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 38 41 44 49 52 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 15 19 16 21 13 14 14 20 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 4 -2 -1 -4 -5 -6 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 305 300 307 314 319 310 311 290 283 263 265 237 228 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 125 124 125 127 130 131 133 134 133 131 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 106 104 104 104 107 111 112 113 115 114 111 107 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 -56.2 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 46 45 41 41 42 45 46 47 48 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -87 -72 -54 -42 -34 -17 -16 -27 -42 -53 -66 -67 -70 200 MB DIV -24 -17 -5 -17 -42 6 -17 7 0 -9 1 26 18 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -8 -7 -1 -5 -1 2 0 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 2152 2177 2203 2197 2191 2155 2039 1974 1981 2059 1899 1841 1848 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.4 27.3 28.5 30.1 31.0 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 46.9 46.6 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.6 47.8 48.6 49.0 48.7 47.9 46.3 44.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 4 5 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 28 28 28 31 23 14 12 12 9 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 18. 19. 21. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 ELEVEN 09/30/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 ELEVEN 09/30/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 ELEVEN 09/30/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)